St. Maarten Private Eye

Are you ready? It's that time of year again, June 1st.

It really started yesterday when the Eastern Pacific storm Alma crossed over Central America and became Arthur.

All forecasts point towards a highly active season this year and as someone who has been through a few here, including Luis, let me tell you it's not an exciting adventure to experience. It's been a long time since we got hammered hard and the law of averages grow more unfavorable every year. We are going to get hammered, it might not be this year, might not be next, but it will happen again because there is no escaping geography.

This post will be added to the Threads list to replace the one from last year. Below we will post news and information about the season, storms that directly affect us will get their own blog.

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Dr. Grey's 2008 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

April Forecast - (Dec 2007 forecast in brackets.)

Named Storms - (13) - 15
Named Storm Days - (60) - 80
Hurricanes - (7) - 8
Hurricane Days - (30) - 40
Intense Hurricanes - (3) - 4
Intense Hurricane Days - (6) - 9

NOAA: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook - 22nd May 2006

The Climate Prediction Center’s 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls a 90% probability of a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season. An above-normal season is most likely (65% chance), but there is also a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Named Storms - 12 to 16
Hurricanes - 6 to 9
Intense Hurricanes - 2 to 5

When the time comes, there is only one person who can take care of you and your family, and that is you. Here are a few tips of my own.

1/ Official recommendations are that you store enough food and water for 3 days. Try a week, or longer if you have space. You may want to consider getting a 50 gallon storage drum, it's not just about drinking, but washing and cooking too.

2/ Consider that you may not have electricity for a week or more. After Luis it took 7 weeks where I lived, but then everything was above ground. Still, there are transformers that can be flooded, the power plant may be damaged and it also needs to intake water from the cloudy stirred up sea. You may want to consider getting yourself a generator and a few tanks of fuel for it. It doesn't need to be big, your main concern should be to keep your fridge running and to have some lighting.

3/ Taking into account the water and electricity problems that you may have, you should plan your food reserves accordingly. Many of us use cooking gas and have two tanks, this is the wrong time of the year to wait till they are both empty to get your refills.

4/ Start now. When you go shopping, buy a little extra, an extra case of water, a few extra tins and so on, put them into a safe storage area separately and over the coming weeks build up a reserve. Trust me, you DO NOT want to go shopping anywhere as a storm is approaching, it's hell.

5/ Batteries, flash lights, medicines, first aid kit, tarpaulins etc. Try to consider everything you might need, not only to take care of yourself but also to be able to get the mess cleaned up too. After Luis we had several weeks of curfew, from 6pm (or was it 8pm?) till 6am, the roads are also a mess, debris everywhere, govt teams at work, marines and police waving guns and taking no crap from anyone. It's best to stay home as much as you can in the days after, or help your neighbors and friends.

6/ Make back up plans if you have any doubts about the house you live in, especially if you have young children. Do not, I repeat, do not rely upon government shelters if you can help it. Many people book hotel rooms to ride out the storm as they often have generators and are usually quite strong. Not sure if I would choose the Westin though.

7/ Pack up and store your valuables in safe places like cupboards, things like your computer, your tv, your stereo, plus personal belongings. Wrap them in plastic bags and tape them so if your roof does go or you get water damage they will likely survive. Documents, paper, photos, things like that can be saved simply bu opening a draw and putting them in.

And thats it for me. There and many more tips that I could come up with, but most of them are common sense really and can be found in the official announcements. Feel free to share your own below if you wish to.

Stay safe, be prepared.

Flipper

2008 Storm Names
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna ,Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred.

Weather links
Intellicast
NOAA Satelite Images.
Weather Underground
TBO Hurricane Weather Center.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)
Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency.

Hurricane Season 2007
Hurricane Season 2006
Hurricane Season 2005

Print your own Hurricane Tracking Maps

News and Articles below

Watching the weather - Hanna and more - 28th August 2008

Watching the Weather - Invest 92 & 93 - 12th August 2008

Watching the Weather - Invest 90 - 2nd August 2008

SXM PE Blog Post - Red Cross in financial hole - 28th July 2008

Emergency support groups to meet on hurricane preparedness - 22nd July 2008

Government will wait until Red Cross meets health sector - 24th July 2008

Authorities not talking about Red Cross - 21st July 2008

Daily Herald Editorial - Clarity needed - 21st July 2008

Authorities not talking about Red Cross troubles - 19th July 2008

Red Cross broke - 18th July 2008

Watching the Weather - Invest 94 - 15th July 2008

16 Hurricane shelters - 6th June 2008

The hurricane season of 2008 rings in with gender-confused Arthur - 1st June 2008

Tropical Storm Arthur loses steam over Mexico, but floods and mudslides possible< - 1st June 2008/strong>