St. Maarten Private Eye

Fewer, But More Intense

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department does a lot of prediction and research of weather and climate-related events. It works with its federals partners in more than seventy countries and the EC to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects. A new study suggests some decrease in tropical storm and hurricane numbers.

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On May the 18th the findings by scientists at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. reported in a study, have be published online in Nature Geoscience.
It comes down to this: scientists have performed hurricane simulations of Atlantic hurricane activity using a new regional model that offers both higher resolution and an improved ability to simulate past observed changes in Atlantic hurricane activity. This model was used to test the influence of greenhouse gas warming on the Atlantic hurricane activity through the end of the 21st century. Simulations reveal higher levels of wind shear and other changes, that will lead to an overall reduction of the number of hurricanes. Yay!
For St Maarten this will mean fewer hurricanes but there will be a slight increase in intensity. Expect more rainfall in the future.

This study’s predictions are just ‘likely’.
Let’s imagine this information is dependable and we will actually see fewer but more powerful hurricanes; on one hand we can be pretty happy about the fact that there’s a decrease in their frequency but on the other hand… a catastrophe leaving heavy damage is guaranteed when a hurricane does pass over the island.
Climate Change really opened Pandora’s box, some say. But although it is widely accepted in the climate change research community that increases in greenhouse gases have caused most of the global warming of the last half century, the link between increasing greenhouse gases and hurricane activity has been a topic of wide debate and of little consensus.
There are correlations between increasing tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and measures of hurricane activity, though.

We may ask ourselves if this new study offers us any news. For in the past few years we have already seen the change of weather; it’s just a continuing process.
The good news at least is that the NOAA has better equipment now. Knowing a hurricane is coming, gives us time to prepare for it.
Unlike what happened in Burma, where the public was not thoroughly informed…

Lastly, in just twelve days the hurricane season will commence!
Do you have an emergency plan?

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